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Compound fertilizer: winter storage price rise has become a foregone conclusion
Author:   Source: China fertilizer network   Published:2017-11-20   Viewed 34 times

After the meeting of phosphatic compound fertilizer compound fertilizer, winter storage price is still not very clear, as of now, winter is still the majority of the implementation of the enterprise interest guarantee policy in advance, only few enterprise products issued a guide price of winter storage, but only tentative price, the trend of late to market fluctuations or will make adjustments. Now in late November last year, compound fertilizer enterprises has introduced winter prices and policies, and this year is not compound fertilizer for winter storage, both upstream or downstream enterprises dealers are still cautious increasingly strong, halt the troops and wait ".

Although the winter storage started slowly, the local market atmosphere slightly depressed than in previous years, but according to the current market trend analysis and judgment, this year the price of compound fertilizer winter storage will rise somewhat, mainly due to the recent sharp rise in raw material prices, compound fertilizer production costs will increase. Here are some of the main raw materials needed for the production of compound fertilizers:
Nitrogenous fertilizer
India suddenly canceled tender urea, last week the international market price of urea fell across the Black Sea, the Middle East and other places of small and large granule urea prices generally fell $7-18 / ton, China's urea FOB price is also difficult to escape, large and small particles of FOB prices dropped by US $7-9 / ton. At the same time last week, the domestic urea market gradually weakened, Shandong, the two rivers and other places of the mainstream price of urea began to decline. Although urea prices fell slightly, but there are still favorable factors to support the market outlook, first of all, the cost of urea production enterprises increased. The winter heating season, coal supply gradually increased, the price trend tends to be weak, but the recent natural gas prices began to rise, the cost of production of downstream natural gas as raw material for urea enterprises increased significantly; followed by ammonia or urea prices rose, the latter companies will limit the production of ammonia, urea slow start, price drop speed, avoid in the short term fell sharply; the last is the production of compound fertilizer enterprises winter storage is part of the lack of raw material of urea enterprises will continue purchasing, to ensure the normal production of winter storage. Therefore, in the short term, even if the price of urea dropped, but the magnitude should be limited, the overall market will remain weak stability.
phosphate fertilizer
With the trend of urea market is different, the recent ammonium price is rising steadily. According to fertilizer network understanding, as of last weekend, the 55% powder ammonium mainstream factory price rose to 2400-2500 yuan (ton price, the same below), the international price of ammonium also continues to rise, Brazil 63% particles of ammonium rose to $390-400 cif. The reason is that the price of ammonium in recent years is rising, on the one hand, the price of raw material sulfur and liquid ammonia is high, and the supply of phosphate rock is tight. At present, part of a production enterprise is in the construction phase of ammonium SULFUR DEPOSIT, Puguang Wanzhou port price is 1600 yuan, Hubei ammonia factory is about 3000 yuan, affected by factors such as environmental protection, safety inspection, ore supply slightly tense; on the other hand, the reason is a whole low operating rate of ammonium. Although a pre production ammonium enterprise in Hubei construction has been restored, but there are still some enterprises to limit production or for production, so the recent ammonium enterprises operating rate or maintain at a relatively low level, a part of ammonium enterprise has not completed the execution of pre orders, limit orders phenomenon will still exist. Cost support, insufficient supply, the latter ammonium price will remain high, or even continue upward.
potash fertilizer
After the phosphate fertilizer meeting, potash fertilizer prices continue to rise, the overall rate of 50 yuan. According to the fertilizer network understanding, as of the end of last week, the port 60% red grain and 62% white potassium high-end price has reached 2100 yuan, border trade 62% white potassium high-end intention price is 1900; domestic potassium, Qinghai small factory 57% powder potassium ex factory quotation rose to 1400 yuan. Summarize the reasons of potash prices are three, one is this small plant potassium chloride underemployment, especially in the winter, part of Qinghai potash production companies that will stop at the end of November, domestic potassium chloride production or will be significantly reduced; second is the recent arrival rate did not significantly enhance the port of potash fertilizer, the port inventory number the same period has decreased, border trade market supply is more intense; the third is the environmental production, all kinds of fertilizer price to rise, the potash market rose with a strong atmosphere. Therefore, the expected short-term potash prices will show gradually upward trend.
According to the fertilizer cost network understanding, at the end of August nationwide 45% general chlorine based compound fertilizer products (according to the calculation of pure raw materials) to 1525 yuan, 45% sulfur based compound fertilizer (general product cost calculation according to the pure raw materials) to 1825 yuan, while the price of raw materials in accordance with the above mentioned current product cost calculation, respectively. About 1805 and 2175 yuan, or 300-350. At present, the demand of the end compound fertilizer market is not fully released, but due to the strong support of the cost of raw materials, compound fertilizer, winter storage prices has been a matter of fact, the specific price of raw materials to market outlook will clear, this month is expected to the end of the corporate winter storage price will be gradually introduced.

 

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